Brussels and Washington have settled on a ceiling for future tariffs—15 per cent on key EU goods—banking a fragile truce after months of threats and counter‑threats.

The cap matters less for what it changes today than for what it forestalls tomorrow. It is an insurance policy against a new round of punitive duties on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and cars. In return, Europe signals more purchases of US energy and chips, and a willingness to discuss quotas where necessary.

“The price of certainty is concessions you can live with.”

There will be carve‑outs and complaints. Spirits want relief; autos fret about competitiveness. Yet the alternative—a tariff ladder that investors cannot model—would be worse. For Ireland and other export‑intensive economies, knowing the ceiling is often as valuable as cutting the rate.

Tariffs on steel and aluminium remain at 50 per cent, a reminder that truces do not erase grievances. But a ceiling is a circuit‑breaker. It lowers the odds of an escalatory spiral and buys time for cooler calculations.